The Orange County housing market is sending some mixed signals in September. In some areas, it’s holding remarkably steady. In others, we’re starting to see some weakness, and interest rates going back above 7% are probably a big reason why.
Let’s start with what’s holding.
The sales price-to-list price ratio rounded to 99% for the third straight month, and that’s also where it was this time last year. On a median-priced Orange County home of about $1.2 million, that works out to roughly a $12,000 discount from the asking price.
Average days on market came in at 51 days, virtually unchanged from both last month and last year.
And price per square foot continues to defy expectations. It was flat from August, but it’s still up 3.7% compared with last September.
Put those numbers together, and you have a market that looks pretty balanced between buyers and sellers.
But look at the number of homes actually selling, and you see the weakness.
September sales were down about 12% from last year, the fewest September sales since 2007.
And with fewer homes selling, inventory climbed about 11% year over year.
Normally, rising inventory and falling sales would put more downward pressure on prices. But there’s an important piece missing from that equation: we still don’t have very many homes for sale.
Even with that 11% increase, Orange County inventory remains below every pre-COVID year in my data going back to 2005.
So rates above 7% may be creating that familiar mental barrier for buyers, but they’re affecting sellers too.
There may be fewer buyers in the market, but there are fewer sellers as well. And for now, that shortage of inventory is helping keep Orange County home prices remarkably resilient.
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